This article titled “The Referees – review” was written by Peter Bradshaw, for The Guardian on Thursday 4th August 2011 20.30 UTC

They have a strange tendency to run backwards. Why? This documentary on international football referees doesn’t say. But it is very diverting nonetheless. They are the sport’s lawmen, subject to all the pressure experienced by the stars, but with none of the cash or adulation, and increasingly considered fair game for abuse by internet bile-spewers and even motormouth coaches for whom vilifying the ref – once unthinkable – is now an accepted mind-game technique.

The film follows a group of refs, including Britain’s Howard Webb, during the Euro 2008 championship. It shows how these very human and fallible officials nervously await Uefa’s judgment on their performance. As in a reality show, only a select few will be invited back to preside over the final knockout matches after the group phase.

There is something compelling and slightly eerie about seeing a match with the crowd-volume turned down almost to zero while we listen in to the audio channel between the referee and his assistants, formerly known as linesmen, communicating via headsets. It gives us a quasi-telepathic access to a tense, internal world, a little similar to Douglas Gordon and Philippe Pareno’s Zidane: A 21st-Century Portrait (2006). There is a very funny moment when one referee’s assistant starts wittering distractingly in his earpiece about possible bad weather coming in. He is told, in no uncertain terms, to shut up.

In this tournament, Webb gave a penalty against Poland in their group match, and faced extraordinary abuse, cynically (and surely disgracefully) encouraged by the Polish premier Donald Tusk. In the face of this hate campaign, Webb kept his cool, and he – and his sweet-natured and proud dad – emerge as the stars of this film. In its depiction of loneliness, The Referees slightly resembles the Channel Four TV documentary Graham Taylor: The Impossible Job, from 1994.

It is interesting to compare the match officials’ style with the grandees of the game. Michel Platini is the breezy, back-slapping, multi-lingual politician in whose presence the refs are as submissive as schoolboys. The legendary Italian ref Pierluigi Collina, he of the billiard-ball head and piercing gaze, is briefly present. In fact, I think Webb and all the other refs are developing the Collina “look”: blank, fierce, hard, directional and unresponsive. It is a look you develop over years of ignoring billionaires screaming in your face while you doggedly point somewhere behind them.

Just one ref, and the two assistants, must impose their will on thousands and thousands of people in the stadium. No wonder they come back into their dressing rooms afterwards on a euphoric high. If the place has not been torched to a smoking ruin, they have won.

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This article titled “Premier League preview No 9: Manchester City” was written by Daniel Taylor, for guardian.co.uk on Thursday 4th August 2011 11.28 UTC

Guardian writers’ prediction 2nd (This is not Daniel Taylor’s prediction, but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position 3rd

Odds to win the league 7-2

When everything is said and done, it all boils down to one thing for Manchester City this season and it is this: can they go that one step further? Can they turn all that drive, ambition, hard spending and unrelenting momentum into something more serious and, finger by finger, prise Sir Alex Ferguson’s grip off the Premier League trophy?

There were nine points between them last season so it would take a fairly hefty swing, but there is certainly good reason to believe there may be less distance between the two Manchester clubs this time around. City were top of the league last Christmas and eventually finished third, their highest finish since 1977. Ferguson, by his own admission, has been forced to take them more seriously than any other point in almost a quarter of a century at Old Trafford, and Roberto Mancini can certainly feel a lot more confident now City, in keeping with every summer under the ownership of the Abu Dhabi United Group, have once again eclipsed everyone in the transfer market.

When the question of City winning the league was raised a couple of weeks ago, on their pre-season trip to Los Angeles, Mancini shook his head and dismissed it out of hand, simmering with the apparent sense that other people at the club were letting him down. But Sergio Agüero has signed since then and the Argentinian is the kind of player who can make the difference, lift an entire club, invigorate the senses. Agüero, recruited from Atlético Madrid for £38m, is the most exhilarating signing of the summer, a symbol of City’s new ambitions and attractiveness.

Yet it has been a quieter time than usual at Eastlands and certainly nothing like what might have been anticipated if you listened to Harry Redknapp in May, when he talked of having inside knowledge of City’s targets and predicted their transfer business “will blow your brains out”. Redknapp might invite less public cynicism if he spared us this kind of nonsense. City always had to be more restrained because, in short, if they carried on with the money-no-object transfer splurges they would be kicked out of the Champions League in the next few years for not meeting Uefa’s financial fair play rules.

As such, the £50m they have spent on Agüero, Gaël Clichy and Stefan Savic is chickenfeed compared to the vast amounts Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan casually signed off in previous transfer windows, even if there might yet be another addition or two. Last summer, the figure was around £130m. The previous season, the total transfer business was £144m. Mancini has suddenly discovered he no longer has unlimited access to a seemingly bottomless pot of riches and the revelation has not always been to his liking.

City, nonetheless, may have moved marginally ahead of Chelsea as the more credible challengers to United. What we have now is a serious organisation, with real aspirations, a plan, forward thinking, and the resources and mindset to carry it through – barely recognisable from the City of old, the club that was skint, endearingly prone to moments of tragicomedy and, ultimately, a little bit clueless.

The modern-day City are no longer to be patronised, pushed around and put down. After so many years on “the high moral step of continual failure”, Simon Curtis of Down The Kippax Steps, probably the best City blog around, noted recently, they are acclimatising to a new existence where “we must try to adopt a different pose for all the flashbulbs suddenly exploding in our faces”. It can feel like a different lifetime since Stuart Pearce, one of Mancini’s predecessors, was told his transfer budget had gone and played David James, an international goalkeeper, as a centre-forward. In fact, it was six years ago.

The new, ultra-ambitious City increasingly have a big-time feel. They have spent £20m or more on nine different players using Abu Dhabi’s oil riches, and have three players earning salaries in excess of £200,000 a week. But there is more to it than that. There are plans to increase the Etihad Stadium (renamed as part of a £400m sponsorship package) to a 60,000 capacity and develop a vast expanse of land around the ground, including a 7,000-seat stadium for their youth team and a new training ground.

What Eastlands doesn’t have yet – and this is the point we are reminded of old Manchester City, the club of Peter Swales, Alan Ball and all the rest – is an actual trophy room. They didn’t see the point of building one because, quite simply, there was nothing of particular note to fill it. Bernard Halford, the club’s now-retired secretary, just used to stick everything that came their way in a broom cupboard.

Very soon, you imagine, that will change. Winning the FA Cup – as United will testify – can have therapeutic qualities for a club that has lapsed for so many years. From here, City should be stronger, more assured, playing with the authentic sense they are now capable of fully structured, productive, grown-up football.

There are, however, imperfections that may need to be addressed if City are to stand a realistic chance of outdoing United, Chelsea and all the rest. For starters, Edin Dzeko and Mario Balotelli will have to do better than last season. Dzeko managed only two league goals in 15 appearances and looked careless of touch at times even though, to give him his due, he would probably be more effective if City operated with orthodox wingers. As for Balotelli, a part of him will probably always be that boy who stayed in the playground too long, but if he avoids the injury problems that disrupted his first season and remembers to take his head out on to the pitch he can endorse Mancini’s theory that the good outweighs the bad.

Then, of course, there is The Peculiar Case of Carlos Tevez and an issue so complex there are people at Eastlands who genuinely suspect the proposed £40m move to Corinthians last month was little more than a publicity stunt. Tevez was initially due to return to training for the first time today, albeit against his will, but it will not be until Monday now that Mancini will next see a player who scored or set up 48% of City’s league goals last season. The delay feels entirely predictable and merely reiterates Tevez’s reluctance to return to Manchester. It is just that there are not many clubs who want to pay more than £40m for a player who has a history of moving every couple of years and who, at 27, is at an age when his transfer value starts to depreciate. Tevez had to be persuaded, with the threat of a fine, to take his place on the open-top bus for City’s FA Cup parade, which is fairly ludicrous for a club captain, and his behaviour before and after that ought really to persuade Mancini to hand the armband to Vincent Kompany. Tevez may sulk but, really, so what? If he does stick around, he has already shown he has the knack of playing well, sometimes brilliantly, even when his mind is polluted with grievances.

One certainty is that City will be glad Agüero is not represented by Kia Joorabchian.

So, can they do it? A personal hunch is that their squad, in its current size, might find the combination of going for the title and playing their first season in the Champions League a little too heavy going – but that it will be a close-run thing.

Mancini may also have to be a little less defence-minded at times, even if it is peculiar this tag has attached itself to a team that scored more goals last season than, say, Tottenham Hotspur, so often acclaimed as one of the Premier League’s great entertainers.

Mancini certainly does not have to apologise for the fact Joe Hart won the Premier League’s “golden glove” award last season, with 18 clean sheets (a club-record 29 in all competitions). It is interesting, though, that two of the three new signings have been defenders. Clichy is not the most watertight full-back around, but the former Arsenal player is quicker and more agile than Aleksandar Kolarov. Mancini had enough reservations about Joleon Lescott to want to replace him with Gary Cahill of Bolton Wanderers earlier in the summer. Savic was the cheaper option and the Montenegro international, eventually joined by Kolo Touré, will push Lescott for the right to partner Kompany, a fine, consistent centre-half.

In midfield, there is a nice blend of steel and finesse. Adam Johnson, on form, can trouble the most accomplished full-back and, at 24, is old enough now to start thinking about establishing himself as more than just an impact player. Yaya Touré should be even better in his second season at the club and only the lazy and misguided still regard Nigel de Jong as little more than a streetwise slugger. The Dutchman is the outstanding defensive midfielder in the league.

As for David Silva, the Spaniard is blessed with a left foot that can make you quicken your step as you walk to the ground.

City also have a manager in charge who knows how to win major trophies and is not frightened of success. Mancini’s record in the transfer market cannot be classed as an emphatic success, but he has demonstrated enough over the last 20 months to end any lingering argument about whether it was correct to replace Mark Hughes – even if, with that, the Italian’s true personality is increasingly being seen behind the scenes.

Those who know Mancini best, who have followed his career as a player and manager and understand what makes him tick, had warned when he was appointed that his time in Manchester would be measured out in different phases. The first would be Mancini on a charm offensive, working out his territory, getting to know the club politics, then gradually weeding out the players who do not buy into his methods and demonstrating, over time, that he is very much The Boss. The second is a man who permanently seems disappointed with his bosses, who bends for nobody, increasingly detached and empowered with success – in the language of the sport, a bit of a bastard. Which, in fairness, is not necessarily a bad thing in football.

It feels like we are moving into the second part of that process right now. Mancini has won his first trophy and elevated himself to a new position of power. He has said he wants more control, that he should be allowed the influence that Ferguson has at Manchester United. He has admitted having differences with Garry Cook, which is almost always the kind of thing football managers try to keep from the newspapers. And these issues with Cook – as well as the football administrator, Brian Marwood – are still there, still festering.

Mancini, however, is far from the first man in high position not to see eye to eye with his chief executive, particularly in an industry as two-faced as football. The important thing, to quote Mancini, is that he and Cook “have the same target” because, together, they might just achieve it.

City demonstrated in the FA Cup last season that they mean business, turning the semi-final into an ordeal for Ferguson and United before Yaya Touré’s winning goal in the final brought down the “Ticker” banner that had hung permanently at Old Trafford to mock that 35-year run without a trophy. The issue now is whether they can go one better and win the league – or even the Champions League – and what we can say for certain is that no other top-six club goes into the season with so much forward momentum.

Paul Lake’s autobiography, I’m Not Really Here, comes out today and tells the story of one match in 1989 when City could have guaranteed promotion by beating Bournemouth at Maine Road. They were 3-0 up at half-time – party time! – and the manager, Mel Machin, told the players he was bringing in a special friend for the team talk. In came the comedian Eddie Large – shiny silver suit, sleeves rolled up – to dole out individual advice to the players … each time using a different celebrity impersonation. “Deputy Dawg ordered me to keep tight in defence,” Lake recalls. “Cliff Richard advised Trevor Morley to shoot on sight, Harold Wilson told Bob Brightwell to keep it simple and Benny from Crossroads told Andy Dibble to stay awake.” The game finished 3-3. Typical City, as they used to say. But no more.

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This article titled “Eric Cantona chides City stars for failing to embrace Manchester” was written by Paul Wilson, for The Guardian on Wednesday 3rd August 2011 19.23 UTC

Eric Cantona returned to Manchester on Thursday night with a swipe at the attitude of City’s foreign signings, principally Carlos Tevez, who say they cannot wait to get out of the place.

“I had a great time in Manchester,” the former United striker said. “I cannot understand anyone not liking it, though I suppose it depends on where they come from and why they are here. The most important thing for me was always to play, and if you are at one of the best clubs in the world then you should enjoy it. As a professional footballer the greatest time you have is on the pitch, but I loved the city as well, the club and the people.”

Cantona was in town in his capacity as director of soccer of New York Cosmos, the revived US franchise who will be providing the opposition for Paul Scholes’s testimonial at Old Trafford on Friday evening. Sitting next to him at a press conference in Manchester’s northern quarter was no less a personage than Pelé, the honorary president of Cosmos, but it spoke volumes for the popularity of Cantona in these parts that almost all the questions were addressed to the iconic Frenchman.

“I didn’t want to do the typical ex-player thing and hang around my old club, though I must admit it’s great to be coming back with Cosmos,” Cantona said. “If I am going to try to be a manager I wanted to do it at a special club, and that it just what the New York Cosmos is. The city is unique and the club history is legendary.”

Officially that club history ended in 1984, when after the heady days of Pelé, Franz Beckenbauer and others the club folded with the rest of the North American Soccer League. The present New York Red Bulls tried to acquire the name but were rejected, but the former Tottenham Hotspur director Paul Kemsley successfully managed to get Cosmos up and running again.

They still need a stadium, have yet to be accepted into the MLS and now face competition for spectators from the Bulls, but as Kemsley said, to be able to play your inaugural game in front of 77,000 fans at Old Trafford would be a coup for anyone. “We are quite privileged to be in this game, it will be the biggest thrill in the world on Friday,” he said. “We just hope we can do justice to United States football as well as Paul Scholes.”

When Pelé did get a word in edgeways he suggested his old club had never really died, and certainly not failed. “Cosmos never, ever finished,” the Brazilian great insisted. “If you look at America now, everyone between the age of seven and 20 plays soccer, and that is all because of the Cosmos. I have always worked hard to establish the game in the US, and I am proud of what was achieved. Even before the club re-formed, everyone still talked about the Cosmos. It was a success. Look at how well the US team did in the women’s World Cup. Look at how many American footballers there are now in every part of the world. Before the Cosmos came along, there were hardly any.”

Cantona is looking to continue that process, not just through star names and some of the trendiest retro merchandise around, but by bringing through young American talent.

“We have a lot of things to do and we want to do them well,” he said. “Of course you can buy players but we have a huge steam of emerging talent to tap into and our aim is to run a successful academy, along the lines of Auxerre, Barcelona or even Manchester United. The talent definitely exists in the US. I would say the US is capable of winning a World Cup in the next 20 years or so, and I believe the Cosmos can help in that process, in exactly the same way as Barcelona and their academy helped Spain.”

Were that to come about, Cantona would inevitably be linked with a return to Old Trafford in a coaching capacity. Would he fancy succeeding Sir Alex Ferguson? “Maybe I will die before Alex Ferguson,” he quipped. “We all know what a great job he has done. Paul Scholes was a great player, but Manchester United will not miss him. Just like they did not miss Hughes, Beckham, or me.

“You always think it might be the end, but when you have a strong academy and a history like United’s, any player can be replaced.”

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This article titled “Fantasy football is about to become reality with immersion technology” was written by Dominic Fifield, for The Guardian on Tuesday 2nd August 2011 21.31 UTC

The Premier League’s desire to innovate is about to become a virtual reality. English football’s elite division has long prided itself on an ability to refresh the brand the top-flight game has become but, where attempts to introduce a 39th game to be farmed out around the globe have died a death, now the EPL experience is to become truly interactive. Apparently coming to a television screen near you: The Premier League, Avatar-style.

Talks are under way between the league’s administrators and both Sony and Electronic Arts aimed at offering viewers the chance to experience “immersion technology” and enjoy games being played potentially on the other side of the planet as if they were present in the stands. As a concept, it sounds as if it might have been lifted from the script of Red Dwarf as much as a James Cameron blockbuster. “But I think it’s only between two to five years from being readily available,” said the Premier League’s chief executive, Richard Scudamore. “It might seem a bit ‘blue sky’, but it isn’t. It’ll certainly happen within my working life.”

The principle is intriguing. Subscribers would most likely don headphones and settle down in front of their 3D, high‑definition flat screens on a Saturday to choose which fixture to watch. Selections will be made from drop‑down menus – whether they want to sit in the Shed End for Chelsea versus Wigan Athletic, or the Stretford End for Manchester United against Swansea City – and, once made, supporters would watch the game as if at the ground. Throw in surround sound and, presumably, some overpriced refreshments and the Premier League experience will be transported into viewers’ living rooms.

“There’s been a step-change from standard definition to high definition in terms of how people consume football,” said Scudamore. “3D is coming along and there have been all these new devices coming on to the scene. There’ll soon be a technological development that will allow people across the world to have a much richer type of experience in terms of watching and consuming football. Our efforts and energies are concentrated in that area, rather than they are in the old-fashioned and passé idea of flying around the world playing a 39th game. We’ll find a technological solution.

“There’s immersion technology being developed right now where you can sit down with headphones and a screen in front of you, and reproduce the feeling of being in a stadium. You can call in your mates to sit next to you and chat to them. If you turn your head one way you’re looking at the left-hand goal and the other way you’re looking at the right-hand goal. That’s in Beta testing now.

“You’ll be able to decide where you want to be: you could be on a Saturday at 3pm, English time, in Hong Kong deciding whether you want to be on the Kop end at Anfield or the Holte End at Aston Villa. There’ll be a drop‑down menu and you’ll be able to choose where you want to be and watch the game. It’ll be like an Avatar‑type of thing available in your own home. It might sound pie in the sky, but it’s not. That virtual reality is already there. To be honest, it’s the sort of thing our kids are playing with all the time.”

The Premier League is in dialogue with Sony and EA over concepts that could yet yield this kind of Saturday afternoon experience. Sony is aiming to deliver “Super Wide”, a panoramic shot based on footage delivered by several cameras. The pictures are then effectively stitched together with viewers able to pick their viewing angle: from a corner flag; behind the dugouts; even from the posh, heated seats up in the directors’ box.

EA’s take is slightly different, with the company in the process of developing a 3D “graphical representation package” which Sky hopes to use to improve its analysis from the 2012‑13 season. The US firm, whose Fifa series of video games have sold more than 100m copies worldwide, intends to use 3D holographic representations of various phases of play within the game for viewers to access via Sky. Subscribers would then be presented with a 3D playbook, which would include pieces of analysis, with the ultimate aim for it to be available in real time.

That same principle could yet be developed further to match the Premier League’s technological vision. “I see that vision and I can see it happening,” said Scudamore. “I’m quite excited about it and it’s the sort of thing we should be doing. We’ve been speaking to a couple of companies about working with them on developing the product.”

There would, of course, be limits to what could be offered in this country. After all, recreating the atmosphere of an English league game kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday would be less appealing if crowds dwindle because fans are preferring to interact on their plasmas at home. “It’s more a global vision, as we wouldn’t do anything in England to undermine the 3pm window,” said Scudamore. “We want to protect the whole of English football and I’m a great protector of that window. I’d rather people were attending the stadia in England, whether it be at Barnet or Arsenal.

“Anything we did to undermine that would be difficult for me personally and professionally. But this can become a reality, and it can be produced to satisfy a mass market. As most consumer goods are. This is innovative, but I can see it happening. And it’s exciting: the sort of thing we should be doing.”

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This article titled “Premier League preview No7: Fulham” was written by Paul Doyle, for guardian.co.uk on Wednesday 3rd August 2011 12.00 UTC

Guardian writers’ prediction: 9th (This is not Paul Doyle’s prediction, but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 8th

Odds to win the league: 1,000-1

Martin Jol may have got a raw deal when he was ousted at Tottenham but for his return to London he could hardly have landed a cosier gig. He has been employed by the greatest chairman of the Premier League era, other, perhaps, than Blackburn’s Jack Walker, and he has inherited a fine team that should finish well clear of relegation and, with tweaking rather than revamping, could again challenge for a European place and perhaps a domestic cup.

If you were looking at ways to kill time at work, you could devote many hours to debating who was more foolish: Mark Hughes for walking out on Fulham or Aston Villa for not appointing Hughes thereafter, but one thing is certain: in his one season at Craven Cottage Hughes did a splendid job, building on the excellent work previously done by Roy Hodgson. Hughes improved Fulham’s away record and made them a more dangerous attacking team while retaining the defensive solidity and careful possession play that Hodgson had nurtured. He achieved this despite a wretched spate of injuries, especially in the first half of the season.

Jol has no such casualty list to contend with, Bobby Zamora’s return to full fitness being a particular boon. And the club have, so far at least, been able to retain their key players, notably Brede Hangeland, who along with Aaron Hughes, forms one of the Premier League’s best central defences (that pair’s organisational diligence and aerial prowess are, for instance, the main reasons why Fulham conceded fewer goals than any other team in the league from set pieces last season, and the fact that Hangeland started scoring from them at the other end makes him even more valuable). The strength of the cover behind that pair, and at right-back, is something Jol will need to address. He has already reinforced well at left-back, with John Arne Riise likely to provide further evidence that Liverpool ejected him prematurely.

The linchpin of Fulham’s midfield is Danny Murphy, the conduit of most of their attacks, as proven by the fact that he had more touches of the ball than any other player in the Premier League last season. Dickson Etuhu is a powerful and tidy foil for Murphy, but the latter’s contribution to the team’s defending is also highly significant – only five players in the league won more tackles than Murphy last season. So losing him would obviously be a serious blow, even if Steve Sidwell is a useful deputy. Jol may seek more back-up.

Damien Duff has looked excellent in the early European campaign and fitter than he has for a while, and Simon Davies, while perhaps not a star, is definitely a trouper. With Riise capable of being deployed in left midfield and Clint Dempsey due back from his extended break following his Gold Cup duty, Fulham carry potent threats out wide.

Dempsey may not play on the flank but rather off Zamora (or Moussa Dembélé, whose return from injury is another big boost for Jol). Either way, space should always be made for the excellent American. Andy Johnson, who has yet to truly convince at Craven Cottage, could find himself on the bench a lot, even though he has regularly shown tantalising signs of forming a threatening partnership with Zamora. Jol, then, has decent attacking options and will probably increase them before the transfer window closes. Fulham should be fun to watch this season. And tough to play against.

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This article titled “Premier League preview No4: Bolton Wanderers” was written by Jacob Steinberg, for guardian.co.uk on Tuesday 2nd August 2011 07.00 UTC

Guardian writers’ prediction: 11th (NB: this is not Jacob Steinberg’s prediction, but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 14th

Odds to win the league: 1,000-1

Not many people outside of Nottingham will remember the swashbuckling Forest side from the 2002-03 season, but they provide a pertinent warning for Bolton Wanderers. Eight years ago, Paul Hart nearly led Forest to promotion into the Premier League, only losing 5-4 on aggregate in the semi-final play-offs to Sheffield United. His side was partly based on the lock-pick that doubled up as the left foot of Andy Reid, but also on the goals up front of Marlon Harewood, Darren Huckerby and David Johnson. It would have been difficult to assemble a more potent attack in the Championship.

Between them, the three strikers scored 53 goals in the league (Huckerby was signed on loan from Manchester City in February and got five in 11 games). The following season should have seen Forest make further progress. Instead they plummeted. Huckerby, who had returned to City, instead joined Forest’s promotion rivals, Norwich City, and helped them win the league by eight points. In September, Johnson broke his leg and then in October, Harewood was sold to West Ham United. As easily as tearing off a toenail, 53 goals were ripped out of the side, and Forest finished 14th. A year later, they were relegated to League One.

Clearly there is more chance of locating any discernible plot in an episode of Glee than that happening to Bolton this season, but Owen Coyle should be worried about his side’s prospects. Last season, he was able to call upon three forwards, Kevin Davies, Johan Elmander and Daniel Sturridge. Then, to paraphrase the Spice Girls, three became one: Galatasaray, able to offer more money, have signed Elmander on a free transfer and Sturridge has returned to Chelsea after impressing on loan at the Reebok Stadium. Sturridge, who scored eight times in 12 matches for Bolton, is the greater loss. A prodigiously skilful presence in attack, he was comfortably Bolton’s best player, giving them a different dimension going forward. Maybe Coyle retains hope of convincing Chelsea to let them borrow him again, but there has been little talk of that happening.

Elmander’s departure, though frustrating, is arguably less damaging. During his first two seasons in England he was regarded as a standing joke – if he scored against you, you knew you were doing something wrong – and although he performed commendably in the first half of last season, it was never to a level that justified the £8.2m Gary Megson spent on him in 2008. A remarkable solo goal against Wolves last November was perhaps the zenith of his time at Bolton, but that was an exception rather than the norm. In the second half of the season he managed only one goal in the league, although that was partly a consequence of a move into a deeper role following Sturridge’s arrival.

The pair contributed 18 goals in the league for Bolton. Davies, who has never been prolific, added another eight, but seven of those came before New Year’s Day. Now 34, he is hardly the man to solve a very glaring problem for Coyle. Nor are Rodrigo Moreno or Ivan Klasnic, who is at least a useful option off the bench. In their search for a new striker, Bolton have been linked with David Ngog, a solution which doesn’t immediately convince.

Just as alarming as the lack of goals is the manner in which Bolton collapsed in the second half of the season, when they won a paltry five games in the league, none of which were on their travels. There were mitigating circumstances for such a poor run of form, though. Three of the victories came before Stuart Holden injured his knee after a shocking tackle from Manchester United’s Jonny Evans on 19 March, after which Bolton were able to beat only West Ham and Arsenal. Aside from those two victories, Bolton were beaten in eight of their last 10 league games and were also demolished 5-0 by Stoke City in their FA Cup semi-final.

Holden’s injury was disastrous. The American was a key part of Bolton’s midfield, regularly breaking up play in front of his back four and overwhelming opponents with the sort of energy that would put a hyperactive toddler to shame. Without him, though, Bolton lacked zest and their defence was increasingly exposed. Although Bolton kept only five clean sheets last season, their defensive record was not bad – 56 goals conceded, which is perhaps not too surprising when Jussi Jaaskelainen is in goal and Gary Cahill is in the centre of defence. However, Holden will be missing at the start of the season. They need him back as soon as possible.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, Bolton have also been rocked by the broken leg suffered by Lee Chung-yong after a nasty and unnecessary challenge from Newport County’s Tom Miller in a pre-season friendly last Saturday. Lee, one of the most exciting wingers in the league, will be out for nine months. Bolton will sorely miss him while he recovers; the South Korean is a good crosser, a hard worker and a cool finisher. The injuries mean Coyle has been forced to look for both quantity and quality. In the final game of last season, he was forced to play Elmander and Ricardo Gardner in central midfield against Manchester City, demonstrating the need for a bigger squad. Yet at the same time, no manager wants to buy for the sake of it.

After all, without Holden and Lee, Bolton’s midfield suddenly takes on a rather average feel. In the centre, Fabrice Muamba destroys effectively and Mark Davies is a canny player who should continue to develop if he gets more playing time this season. Nigel Reo-Coker has also been signed on a free transfer to add more steel, although he will not pass the ball with anything approaching accuracy. Darren Pratley has also arrived having helped Swansea City win the Championship play-offs. On the left, Martin Petrov is always dangerous, if not always reliable. He started only 18 games last season and his chief rival, Matthew Taylor, has joined West Ham.

Creativity may be in short supply, then, unless Chris Eagles, signed from Burnley, can rise to the challenge. The former Manchester United winger has always had potential but is yet to truly deliver on it. Flashier than Lee but less effective, he has always been capable of eye-catching moments of skill and Bolton need that on a regular basis. Eagles has also been followed to Bolton by Tyrone Mears, one of those non-defending, gung-ho right-backs who are all the rage right now. He won’t add much defensively, but is a huge threat going forward.

Bolton will need to hit the ground running as their start to the season makes grim reading. In their first seven games, they host Manchester City, Manchester United, Norwich City and Chelsea, while there are also trips to Arsenal and Liverpool. They go to Queens Park Rangers on the first day, which sounds pleasant enough, but matches away to promoted sides in August rarely are. It is conceivable that they could have no more than three points by the middle of October.

Realistically Bolton should have enough to keep clear of a relegation battle. Since staying up in 2003 they have enjoyed several solid campaigns, and aside from a Sammy Lee-inspired blip in 2008, they have mostly finished in mid-table.

The Reebok remains a difficult place to visit and the idea that Bolton were England’s answer to Barcelona last season is far-fetched. Although Coyle rightly has a reputation for producing entertaining teams, he is not stupid and Bolton still got the ball forward quickly and directly. That said, attendances were up and the fans seemed more than happy with what they were watching, so Coyle has certainly had an impact on their style, as highlighted by a lovely six-pass move in December against Blackpool that preceded Mark Davies’s goal. Indeed, after a 5-1 shellacking of Newcastle United in November Bolton were the nation’s darlings, and for a long time they sat in sixth place, harbouring genuine hopes of qualifying for the Europa League. Then came the slump and an ultimately disappointing 14th place. But Bolton should not forget what was achieved beforehand.

Above all, Coyle must find the right striker. Get that right and there should be no cause for concern. Get it wrong and 14th place will have to do just fine.

guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010

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This article titled “Premier League preview No5: Chelsea” was written by Dominic Fifield, for guardian.co.uk on Tuesday 2nd August 2011 11.00 UTC

Guardian writers’ prediction: 3rd (This is not Dominic Fifield’s prediction, but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 2nd

Odds to win the league: 5-2

It was Marcel Desailly who summed up the task awaiting André Villas-Boas most succinctly. “All the pressure is on the shoulders of the coach,” said the former Chelsea captain. “It’s all up to him.” The Portuguese, at 33, returned to Stamford Bridge this summer with only 20 months of managerial experience behind him, charged with succeeding where it had been deemed a recent Double-winning coach had failed. It says much for Villas-Boas’s innate self-belief that he has plunged himself into his new role with relish.

The rookie with the record – the Europa League, the domestic league title at a canter and a Portuguese Cup were all claimed in his solitary campaign at Porto – will not escape the focus as Chelsea’s Premier League campaign begins, but the pressure associated with his new role will be embraced. Villas-Boas, a manager who has soaked up knowledge imparted by Sir Bobby Robson, Pep Guardiola and José Mourinho, has only ever been successful. He has never tasted anything else. He may preach the power of the collective, but his is an entrenched belief that his own footballing philosophy can revive this team.

In truth, it has to. Villas-Boas is the single factor at present upon which Chelsea can pin their hopes of transforming last season’s relative underachievers into title winners and European contenders again. The club will attempt to be active in the transfer market before the end of the month, and much may depend upon the success of their pursuit of Tottenham Hotspur’s playmaker Luka Modric, but, at present, this is a playing staff that is settled and familiar. Short-termism in the dugout has led to virtual inertia when it comes to overhauling the squad. They will essentially rely on the same names, trying to tap into the same strengths, but are therefore also susceptible to the same weaknesses.

These players have earned lofty reputations, but they are also a group who have claimed the Premier League only once since Mourinho’s second campaign at the club, and who rather faded as challengers for the Champions League under Carlo Ancelotti. Last term’s dismal mid-season slump came as a profound shock, with the Italian never recovering from his inability to arrest the decline until the real damage had been done. Roman Abramovich does not put up with failure, and the management’s rather perplexed reaction to the crisis was never likely to be tolerated. Elimination from Europe merely sealed Ancelotti’s fate.

Those same players remain, which makes concerns over a repeat inevitable. Logic suggested this summer was an opportunity to revamp, that the new manager might seek to restructure and refresh. Instead, he has chosen to maintain the faith or, perhaps more realistically, recognised the practicalities which hamper Chelsea’s attempts to reinvent. Senior players are on considerable wages, limiting the number of suitors capable of luring them away.

Anzhi Makhachkala taking Yuri Zhirkov back to Russia is the exception – he will be returning home to a money-flushed club able to pay his wages. Others, like José Bosingwa and Paulo Ferreira, cannot be moved on. Nicolas Anelka, too, has opted to see out the final year of his contract and leave for nothing next summer rather than transferring now. The Premier League’s 25-man squad rule, and a reluctance to stockpile players who cannot be utilised, has set the club’s policy: the lavish spending, to date, was limited to January.

Yet Villas-Boas returned from the club’s four-match tour of the far east this week glowing at the quality already at his disposal. His satisfaction was not an act. There had been visible signs of progress through those distant pre-season preparations, with players growing both in terms of physical fitness – which would be expected – and in assuredness at the systems and style the management wish to pursue. They spoke of feeling “liberated”, revelling in training sessions that concentrated more on ballwork aimed at promoting a fluid, attacking approach on the pitch. These are simple principles and they will be tested in the Premier League, particularly if injuries bite as they did last year, but Villas-Boas and his staff believe they hit upon a balance at Porto that can be implemented in London to eke out something extra.

The tour provided evidence that his techniques, combined with the players’ desire to impress, are working. Pre-season only offers hints for what lies ahead, but there was plenty to encourage. Didier Drogba was at his brutish best. Frank Lampard adapted well to the right-sided role in a narrow midfield he might have to occupy if Modric is signed, and even to deeper-lying duties. Branislav Ivanovic appeared a natural partner for John Terry at centre-half, all power on the turf and aggression in the air. Yossi Benayoun offered subtlety and creation, qualities missing for long periods last season. Florent Malouda rediscovered the menace and whip in his delivery. Even Fernando Torres managed a goal and flashes of his old Liverpool self in the Barclays Asia Trophy final victory over Aston Villa. If those seniors maintain form and fitness, Chelsea can still flourish.

The team has flitted smoothly through variations in systems and tactics, from a conventional 4-3-3 to a diamond midfield and even a 4-2-3-1, which should suit Torres most of all. Then there has been the considerable impact of the squad’s younger talents, most notably Josh McEachran in midfield and Daniel Sturridge up front. Villas-Boas has high hopes, too, for the teenager Oriol Romeu, en route from Barcelona B, who he sees as capable of thriving in the defensive midfield berth. The Spaniard could potentially move the ball on quicker than Mikel John Obi to maintain an upbeat tempo. Michael Essien’s long-term knee injury is a blow, but throw in both Ramires and David Luiz, neither of whom were present in Asia but are both capable of sitting effectively at the base of midfield if required, and there are options for the Portuguese to pursue.

The addition of a playmaker could yet be key, and the catalyst to Torres justifying his value in the months ahead, and coaxing performances from the Spaniard will be essential if Villas-Boas’s tenure is to be judged successful. On one level, this club simply cannot afford to endure the embarrassment of being saddled with another Andriy Shevchenko – Torres, at 27 and already used to the rigours of the Premier League, should not suffer the same fate – but, on another, if the World Cup winner performs then Chelsea boast a weapon few can rival. Villas-Boas can simply add that to his list of issues to address but, as a manager who has never endured failure, he will not be daunted.

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